Democrats’ Long Shot Hope in the Mountains

Democrats are approaching the 2026 election with optimism. But a general upswing in mood is one thing; flipping seats is another. And, unfortunately for Democrats, there aren’t many competitive congressional districts left to flip.

In North Carolina, the most competitive district is the 1st, which is already held by Democrat Don Davis. They’ll have to focus on defense there.

If Democrats squint hard, however, could they find a normally Republican district that could get swept up in the kind of blue wave some are predicting for 2026?

Some think the answer might be found in Western North Carolina’s 11th district. 

Under normal political conditions, the 11th is an unlikely target. Covering the 16 westernmost counties, the district is the least racially diverse in the state (86 percent of voters identify as white), among the most rural, and tied for the smallest proportion of registered Democrats in the state (25 percent).

A Democrat hasn’t won the seat since 2010, and its most recent former occupants, Madison Cawthorn and Mark Meadows, aren’t exactly models of moderation.

There’s the bright blue dot of Asheville, but the city’s diminutive size—just 13 percent of the district’s total voters live there—keeps it from driving the region’s politics. Worse yet, recent electoral history beyond Buncombe’s borders looks positively bleak for Democrats. No other county in the district has given the majority of its votes to a Democratic candidate for Congress since 2012.

Lean Into It

For those reasons and a few more, Republican Chuck Edwards won by 9.3 percentage points over Democrats Jasmine Beach-Ferrara in 2022 and 13.5 percentage points over Caleb Rudow in 2024. Nationwide last year, no Democrat won in a district that leaned as heavily toward Donald Trump (9.5 percentage points) as the 11th.

Even after three years in office, Edwards isn’t a household name in the district. But the 64-year-old McDonald’s franchise owner and former state senator has been far steadier and more competent than other recent occupants of the seat. He has leaned into constituent services, and while he doesn’t have any major legislative wins to his credit, few junior members of Congress do. 

Political scientists who study legislative effectiveness found him to be no slouch, ranking among the most effective freshman members of Congress in his first term.

Stylistically, Edwards is a bit of a throwback. He doesn’t embrace high fashion and doesn’t engage in bomb throwing on social media. His revival of the Congressmobile—a staff-driven van named the “Carolina Cruiser” that makes its way through the district, stopping in parking lots to talk to constituents–seems like something from a different era entirely. A van parked in front of the Robbinsville Post Office isn’t flashy, but it’s good advertising and a clever way to show voters in a sprawling district that their congressman does more than hang out in the swamp.

But if you look closely, you can find some evidence to support Democrats’ cautious optimism.

An Opening?

In late March, the progressive Political Action Committee EMILYs List placed Edwards and 45 of his colleagues “on notice” as their “top targets” for 2026. Likewise, the Democratic Party’s House Majority PAC named the 11th one of its 16 “districts to watch,” the second tier of priorities for the group affiliated with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

The 2024 election gave them some reason to think the 11th isn’t out of the question. Compared with 2020, Trump increased his vote share in all but 19 of the nation’s 435 U.S. House districts in 2024. The 11th was the only district in North Carolina on the list, and it came close to topping it. Kamala Harris’ vote share here was 1.5 percentage points higher than Joe Biden’s in 2020–the third biggest shift in the nation for Dems.

The Cook Partisan Index, which shows how far a district is from the national average, also hints at improving Democratic prospects in the 11th. Entering the 2026 election, they put the district at R+5–the smallest Republican lean here since the index started in 1997; in 2024 it was R+8, and in 2022 it was R+9. In the South, only Virginia’s 1st and 2nd districts hold better prospects for Democrats, according to this measure. 

Some of the leftward shift can be attributed to slight differences in the congressional map between the two cycles, but redistricting doesn’t tell the whole story. Western North Carolina was one of the few areas in the country where Harris in 2024 outperformed Biden in 2020. 

In fact, the three counties in North Carolina where Democrats increased their presidential vote share the most were all in the 11th district: Henderson (2.1 percentage point shift), Buncombe (1.8), and Transylvania (1.8).

And, although Edwards has, by and large, avoided scandal, there have been a few bumps in the road as of late. Edwards faced considerable backlash at a town hall in March as he sought to defend the Trump administration’s federal cuts and hurricane response.

Then, at a Rotary Club conference in Asheville last month, an audience member reportedly took issue with what he perceived as Edwards’ overtly political speech at the normally apolitical event. The disagreement resulted in a police report and accusations of assault, but no charges were filed.  

There’s also a looming question mark left in the wake of Hurricane Helene. While parts of the region have started to recover, others are still struggling. A section of I-40, the main thoroughfare in and out of the region, is still only open for one-lane traffic in each direction. People are still living in tents in places like Old Fort.

Shortly after taking office, Trump created a task force to “fix” the Federal Emergency Management Agency and named Edwards as a member. In April, Edwards submitted a 62-page report to the president entitled “What’s Needed to Advance Hurricane Helene Recovery in Western North Carolina.”  

But soon thereafter, Trump twice denied the state’s request to cover the cost of some Helene-related debris removal, and he has continued to attack FEMA. The biggest impacts may be yet to come. “​We’re not to the point of seeing how this affects us–cuts to NOAA, cuts to health care. We’re gonna find out,” said Canton Mayor Zeb Smathers. “Actions have consequences, and what is happening in Washington will have consequences here.”

But it’s hard to know exactly what those consequences will be. No one knows how voters will attribute both blame and credit in the face of the worst natural disaster to hit the region in over a century. But some Democrats believe that the storm’s aftermath may provide further fodder to unseat the incumbent.

Finding the Right Candidate

If the Democrats hope to capitalize on that, though, they’ll need to identify not just a candidate, but the right candidate. 

“You have to be a certain profile of Democrat,” said Grayson Barnette, co-founder and principal strategist at the Western North Carolina-based political consulting firm Express Lane Strategies. “Anyone who lives in Western North Carolina knows what I’m talking about. The local principal. The farmer next door. The schoolteacher you had who’s the nicest one you remember.”

So far, four candidates have dipped a toe in the race. Chris Harjes, Moe Davis, Marcus Blankenship, and Zelda Briarwood all spoke at the May 10 district convention in Haywood County and identified themselves as candidates. 

Chris Harjes is perhaps best known in kayaking circles: He’s a nine-time competitor in the Green Race—the closest thing to a Super Bowl of whitewater kayaking. He’s also a nurse practitioner who contracts for the Department of Defense and moonlights as a real estate investor who has found success flipping homes in a region that has an affordable housing problem. His campaign website touts his plan to “stick it to The Man.”

In an interview with The Assembly, the first-time candidate elaborated on that platform, saying, “If we keep doing what we’ve been doing, we will lose again.” He praised “the idea of DOGE,” but “not the execution,” and wants to cut health care costs while “providing better services.” He believes he can appeal to unaffiliated voters, who comprise the plurality of registered voters in the district, “and even some moderate Republicans.” 

He plans to kick off his campaign with a flurry of ads in early summer. And while he plans on “going after Chuck directly,” he said he will not speak ill of other Democrats in the race. 

Then there’s Moe Davis. A retired Air Force colonel who lives in Buncombe County, Davis ran for the 11th in 2020 and lost to Madison Cawthorn by 12 percentage points under slightly different district lines. In an interview with The Assembly, Davis said he thinks this time around could be different, citing the small but critical changes to the map following redistricting in 2023, the evolving demographics of the region, and what Davis characterizes as Edwards’ failings, particularly as they relate to Hurricane Helene.

But Davis’ previous run for office and the years since have revealed an uneasy relationship with some local Democrats. “Moe has made it very clear that he has a lot against a lot of party leaders on the ground,” Barnette explained. “Being a sore loser in the past will not help you run in the future. Moe Davis is going to have to make a lot of friends before he is fully embraced.”

In our interview, Davis didn’t give the impression that the 2026 campaign would produce a kinder, gentler candidate. “If somebody says ‘you’re a son of a bitch,’ I’m not gonna dispute it. But I am going to be the same son of a bitch who gets in their face and fights for you and your family,” he said. “The gloves are off this time.”

Briarwood is a field services technician for Quality Data Systems who lives in Haywood County and has served as a precinct chair for the county Democratic Party. She does not have a formal campaign website but has filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) and has begun a GoFundMe page to raise campaign donations. 

Blankenship, a teacher turned community college administrator who lives in Buncombe County, has yet to file for candidacy with the FEC and thus is limited in the amount of money he can raise. But he has created a candidate website where he lays out his identity as an “old school Democrat” as well as a laundry list of policy priorities. 

With more than six months to go before the official filing period to appear on the ballot even opens, the rumor mill around the region is rich with the names of other possible candidates. Smathers and state Reps. Lindsey Prather, Eric Ager, and Brian Turner are all potential names Barnette has heard passed around.

Barnette has been a consultant for all three state representatives and acknowledges that they are all unlikely candidates. North Carolina law prevents them from running for the General Assembly at the same time that they’re running for U.S. Congress, and none seems ready to give up a legislative seat at this moment. 

Smathers, who recently worked with Edwards to facilitate a $41 million grant for Canton, also says he has no plans to run this cycle. ”I appreciate the calls and the palace intrigue, but the only thing I’m running for is mayor of Canton,” he said. (That race is happening this fall.)

Barnette did offer one other name: Jamie Ager, Eric’s brother, the son of former state Rep. John Ager, and the grandson of the late Jamie Clarke, who represented the 11th in Congress from 1983 to 1985 and 1987 to 1991. 

Jamie Ager, Barnette said, “is the strongest person we could pull from with local roots.”

Ager, the CEO of Hickory Nut Gap Farms in Fairview, said he is still undecided about running. “I am considering it, but it’s a big step, and I’m going to take my time,” Ager said. 

He also had some thoughts on how the Democratic Party could find more success in the 11th: “The Democratic Party got a little bit distracted in the last few elections, and it’s hurting the brand. The party has historically been focused on helping everyday people. That’s the core of what Democrats have historically done well. That’s no longer the case, and it’s time to change.”

Whoever the eventual Democratic nominee is, the candidate will need the support of the national Democratic Party. Winning in today’s nationalized political environment requires it. That may prove trickier than one would expect.

An Indifferent National Party?

When Caleb Rudow ran against Edwards for the seat in 2024, he worked feverishly to find what he described as his “big break”–a chance to get his name in front of more people in a sprawling district. 

The former Peace Corps volunteer and first-term state representative from Asheville thought it might arrive on September 17, when Minnesota governor and vice presidential candidate Tim Walz came to the 11th District for a rally. The national media would be there, and there would be speakers to warm up the crowd before the main event. Certainly, the party would put the Democrat running in the district on stage to offer a few words.

He waited for the call, but it never came.

He said he asked someone from Walz’s advance team if he could get a couple of minutes on the stage in his hometown but was told no.

“It was bullshit,” Rudow explained. “I was pissed.”

Rudow still came to the event and stood outside in the rain, among the throng, while he watched Prather, former state Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr, Asheville Mayor Esther Manheimer, and Asheville Vice Mayor Sandra Kilgore take the stage.

“I worked the crowd, talked to supporters, and stayed until the final moment,” said Rudow. “I was going to meet everyone as they left.”

Rudow, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, raised almost $650,000—more than three-quarters of which was from donors in the district and was the largest such percentage in the country for a U.S. House of Representatives candidate. Despite this, he says he couldn’t get the national party to even return his emails.

As he sees it, the national party bosses didn’t see the advantages of throwing a bone to a candidate in his district, an attitude he doesn’t see them adjusting anytime soon. “Unless we can get a transformational candidate or the national Democratic Party changes its strategy to support more candidates, I don’t see it changing,” Rudow said.

Moe Davis reported slightly more support from the national party in his 2020 campaign. “I got a little bit of help from them—around $150,000 of support. I was lucky,” Davis said. He’s hopeful the national party will lend support in 2026 but highlighted the conditional nature of that support: “You’ve got to show the party you’ve got a realistic chance of winning.” 

“Every candidate has to earn those national resources,” said Barnette. “You are always going to be at a disadvantage running in a Republican district. You have to be the one who overperforms.”

A year out from the primary and a year and a half from the general election, most observers agree that Edwards is still the favorite.

But hope springs eternal for Western North Carolina Democrats. Perhaps this year will be different. Perhaps the right candidate will tip things in their favor. Perhaps fractures in Trump’s MAGA brand will reverberate down-ballot. Perhaps the national Democratic Party will turn on the money spigot. Perhaps, perhaps.