Run, Roy, Run?

This story is republished from NOTUS as part of our partnership with the D.C.-based outlet.

With a wave of retirements complicating Senate Democrats’ prospects in the 2026 midterms, the party has its eye on Republican Sen. Thom Tillis’ seat. Not only do Democrats suspect the two-term senator is vulnerable, they also believe they’ve got just the right guy to take it: former Gov. Roy Cooper.

Pressure on politicians like Cooper, who has repeatedly performed well in Trump country, is mounting in the Democratic Party. Sens. Jeanne Shaheen, Gary Peters and Tina Smith have announced they will not seek reelection in 2026, setting up high-stakes open races in crucial states. Meanwhile, Georgia incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff could be facing off with Gov. Brian Kemp.

A Cooper candidacy could help to offset those challenges in what is anticipated to be one of the most expensive Senate races of the cycle.

“He gets encouragement every single day from folks all across North Carolina as well as Democrat leaders around the country who really want him to run,” said Morgan Jackson, a longtime adviser to Cooper and current Gov. Josh Stein. “He’s been clear that he’s going to take a little time to figure this out.”

Cooper hasn’t committed to running — though he left the door open to the possibility at the end of his governorship. At 67 years old, he just termed out of being governor in North Carolina after serving four terms prior to that as the state’s attorney general. That all followed over 10 years in the state legislature. The longtime politician has never lost an election.

“I just want to take some time with my family and then make a decision,” Cooper told the New York Times in December. “It’s hard for me to believe that I won’t want to do something to continue adding to the woodpile, and I look forward to that.”

The former governor, beginning next week, is about to spend eight weeks as a Menschel Senior Leadership Fellow at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and has indicated to his allies that he will not make a decision until it ends at least. His request for time hasn’t stopped Democrats from signaling to Cooper that he’s the guy for the job now.

“I saw Cooper back in the district in February and I told him of course he should be doing this,” Rep. Deborah Ross told NOTUS. “There’s some signs that he might be moving closer so I’m just crossing my fingers.”

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand privately told donors in January that Cooper would be a “formidable candidate.”

Gillibrand and the DSCC did not respond to a request for comment.

The two most recent DSCC leaders, Peters and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (who oversaw the committee during Tillis’ last election), told NOTUS that Cooper fits the bill.

“Right now our work is just to recruit a strong Democratic candidate in what I believe is a true swing state,” Peters said. “Cooper would be an incredibly strong candidate and there’s no question about that.”

“I, as an attorney general, worked with Roy Cooper,” Cortez Masto said. “He’s phenomenal and has integrity and is committed and he can govern. I think he’d make an incredible United States senator.”

Inside North Carolina, Democrats are actively telling Cooper he’s their best chance. He’s been one of the only Democratic governors to keep his seat in a state that Donald Trump has won in the last three presidential elections. And despite Trump’s third victory in North Carolina in 2024, Democrats outperformed Republicans in most statewide races this cycle.

Even as younger Democrats, like Rep. Wiley Nickel (who opted out of seeking reelection), have publicly expressed interest in the Senate seat, the party’s ranks in North Carolina have made up their minds.

“It’s always nice to think of another possible candidate out there, but all of the people I know really want Cooper,” Matt Hughes, a Democratic National Committee member from North Carolina, told NOTUS. “He is not only the strongest Democrat who can win, he is the strongest candidate of either party who can win.”

As for Tillis, he is not only poised to face a strong Democratic competitor but a potential challenge from the right too. For the most part, he’s a reliable rank-and-file Republican who tends to vote in line with his party, but he’s been censured in the past by the state GOP for breaking with the majority of Republicans to support bipartisan legislation, including the codification of same-sex and interracial marriage.

Nervousness around Tillis is beginning to surface in Republican circles. Republicans in North Carolina’s congressional delegation have withheld endorsements for his reelection campaign. When a poll was released showing Tillis lagging in a Cooper matchup and with a low approval rating, political advisers to the president publicly suggested Republicans should support a new candidate. Tillis told NOTUS in February that he’s getting a good reception in the state and from the president.

Still, the senator’s allies–who also say Cooper would be Democrats’ best option – think the former governor would fall short in a contest with Tillis. As for polls predicting a Cooper win, Tillis’ allies write them off as the trend for Republican senate candidates in the state historically. David McLennan, poll director and professor of political science at Meredith College, said there is at least some evidence of this.

“Republicans’ statewide candidates, with the exception of governor, tend to outperform their polling average leading into Election Day by up to two points,” McLennan told NOTUS, citing Tillis’ race against Cal Cunningham. “It’s an accurate perception that polls tend to underestimate Republican Senate candidates’ strength.”

Cooper has a bipartisan appeal incomparable to other North Carolina politicians, maintaining the highest approval ratings in the state during his tenure as governor, McLennan said, but even he may be looking for signs of a Democratic-friendly environment

“If Trump’s numbers drop in North Carolina, it may be more appealing for Cooper to take that risk. It’s a huge monetary and a huge legacy risk for Cooper,” McLennan said.

Calen Razor is a NOTUS reporter and an Allbritton Journalism Institute fellow.