Why Thom Tillis Shouldn’t Worry About the Primary

In his two terms in the U.S. Senate, North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has developed a reputation as a dealmaker—the rare politician who sometimes embraces bipartisanship. As a result of this intermittent independent streak, Tillis was censured by his own party in 2023 and is often considered vulnerable in the 2026 primary election.

This push to find a primary challenger has come to a head recently. He’s bickering publicly with some of Donald Trump’s allies; adviser Arthur Schwartz recently posted on X that “we’re going to need a new senate candidate in NC unless we want to hand the gavel back to Schumer.” And at the height of Trump’s frustration with the senator, the president reportedly offered his endorsement to a group of North Carolina lawmakers if one would agree to challenge Tillis. None took him up on it, at least publicly.

A recent Public Policy Polling survey reinforces the idea that N.C.Republicans aren’t enamored with Tillis. Only 40 percent of Republican voters in the state approve of his performance—four percentage points lower than GOP approval of the state’s other senator, Ted Budd, 40 lower than Elon Musk, and 47 lower than Trump.

Thom Tillis, it appears, is uniquely unpopular among members of his own party. So, should he be scared of a primary challenge?

In a word, no.

It’s been more than a dozen years since a challenger from the same party has bested an elected sitting senator, and in the 21st century only a handful of incumbent senators lost their primaries in a regular election.

In two of those primary losses—Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski in 2010 and Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman in 2006—the incumbent came back and ran as an independent, and went on to win in the general election a few months later. In two more cases—Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter and New Hampshire’s Bob Smith—the incumbent switched parties during their term, leaving them unusually vulnerable to a challenge. Utah’s Bob Bennett in 2010 failed to make it out of the Republican party convention before the primary even took place.

This means Richard Lugar of Indiana is the only incumbent U.S. senator to lose a re-election bid in a primary under normal circumstances in the 21st century. Unfortunately for his challenger, Richard Mourdock, that success was short-lived; he lost the general election a few months later, handing the Democrats a seat that Republicans had held since 1977.

So, history suggests that a successful primary challenge is highly unlikely. But, even to thread that tiny needle that provides the exception to the rule, the right person needs to run. And if we examine the potential challengers in North Carolina, it’s hard to imagine who that might be.

In his first re-election run, there were rumblings that he might be primaried, with three names often bandied about as potential challengers: Mark Walker, Mark Meadows, and Ted Budd. Since then, Walker has lost primaries for both governor and senator, Meadows is facing legal challenges and has moved to South Carolina, and Ted Budd has already secured the other U.S. Senate seat.

Some have argued that a Republican member of the Council of State could make a run at Tillis since they’ve already shown they can win a statewide race. The problem is that according to the North Carolina Constitution, if a member of the Council of State does not fulfill their term, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein would appoint their replacement until the next General Assembly election—an eventuality that few Republicans want.

Ten out of 14 members of North Carolina’s congressional delegation are Republicans, but five are in their first terms, meaning they likely aren’t well-known enough to challenge the incumbent senator. Rep. Virginia Foxx, who represents North Carolina’s 5th congressional district. She might have the statewide profile to make a run, but she turns 82 this year. If she won, she would be the oldest freshman senator ever elected.

Reps. Richard Hudson and David Rouzer could potentially run, but both have worked their way to powerful positions in the House Republican caucus and both have co-sponsored legislation with Tillis as recently as last month. A run against a collaborator wouldn’t be unheard of, but it would be unusual.

There’s always a chance that someone with no political experience will enter the race, light up the party base, and pull out a surprise victory. That seems to be the theory of the case for the “unapologetically MAGA” longshot candidate who has already entered the race, Winston Salem teacher’s assistant and one-time lieutenant governor candidate, Andy Nilsson.

Supporters of this strategy might point to the 2024 Republican primary for North Carolina’s superintendent of public instruction, when political outsider Michele Morrow beat incumbent Catherine Truitt. Morrow’s campaign fliers even promoted the incumbent’s support of Tillis as a reason to cast a vote for the newbie instead. While this proved to be a successful primary strategy, the choice of Morrow likely cost Republicans control of the office.

Even a Trump endorsement of a challenger might not be enough to guarantee a Tillis defeat. Research by political scientists MV Hood III and Seth C. McKee demonstrates that Trump’s endorsement can be extremely helpful—close to determinative—in elections where people aren’t paying much attention. But they say Trump’s backing is “rendered ineffectual” in a primary race like the U.S. Senate, when attention is high and the big money gets flowing.

In the end, Tillis will almost certainly be the Republican nominee for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat in 2026. History tells us that senators rarely lose their primaries, and the Republican bench in North Carolina doesn’t hold any likely suspects.

And even if the grassroots could take down Tillis, it would set up a difficult, if not impossible, general election run in a state that is the prototypical case for purple politics.