Democrats Break the GOP Supermajority in the Legislature–But Barely

When state House Republicans redrew district lines last year, they moved Democratic Rep. Lindsey Prather from a Buncombe County district that was safely Democratic to one that leans Republican. Prather was opposed by Republican Ruth Smith, a personal injury attorney who has filed federal lawsuits challenging the city of Asheville’s affirmative action policies. 

The northern Buncombe County district includes regions that were heavily pummeled by Hurricane Helene, and parts that fared better than the county overall. Prather still doesn’t have potable water at her house, and amid the most destructive storm in North Carolina’s history, she quickly pivoted from campaigning to help her residents find recovery resources, delivered in 160-character texts. 

Roughly three weeks after Helene hit, Prather said the tone changed, with residents wanting not just voting information, but wanting to have wide-ranging policy discussions—about building codes, education funding for school psychologists, and how unemployment programs don’t support some small businesses and gig workers. She won with 51.4 percent of the vote. 

“When you’re in a disaster, it matters who your leaders are,” Prather said.

On Tuesday, Prather and Democrats won one additional seat in the State House, giving them 49 of the 120, breaking the Republican supermajority. That means Republicans will need to secure the support of at least one Democrat to override vetoes from Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein. 

First-term Republican Rep. Ken Fontenot lost to Dante Pittman in Nash and Wilson counties. Democrats also picked up seats in north Mecklenburg County, where Beth Helfrich bested former Huntersville Mayor Melinda Bales, and in Granville and Vance counties, where Bryan Cohn ousted Rep. Frank Sossamon; that race was within 200 votes and might qualify for a recount. But Republicans also flipped some seats, giving them 71, one short of a supermajority. 

In the Senate, Republicans hardened their supermajority, gaining one seat for a 31-19 Republican-Democrat split, though two seats are within the recount range. 

When Rep. Tricia Cotham of Mecklenburg County switched parties last year, Republicans secured a supermajority. The party already held 30 seats in the state Senate, and Cotham became the 72nd Republican in the state House, giving the party three-fifths of the votes in both chambers, enough to override any veto by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. 

Since then, the Republican-controlled legislature has overridden the governor’s vetoes like clockwork, including moving the window to access abortion from 20 weeks to 12 and requiring 16- and 17-year-olds to be tried as adults for certain felonies.   

“This marks a monumental shift in the balance of power in North Carolina,” Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams said in a statement. “That unchecked GOP power ends today with Gov.-elect Josh Stein and an incoming Democratic caucus that can sustain his vetoes of extreme Republican overreach.” 

Senate leader Phil Berger said North Carolina voters continue to trust Republicans, who have controlled both chambers since 2011, to run the General Assembly. “Tonight’s results affirm their continued support of policies that make North Carolina the best state in the nation to live, work, and raise a family,” Berger said in a statement. 

Before the new legislature starts in January, Republicans have some time to pass legislation with their supermajorities intact. They could override Cooper’s veto and fully fund private school scholarships regardless of family income level, and potentially strip further powers from the governor.

Shoulder Districts

The most recent redistricting left only a handful of competitive legislative districts, what Western Carolina University political scientist Chris Cooper (no relation to Gov. Cooper) calls “shoulder districts.” “They’re not quite urban, they’re not quite suburban, they’re not quite rural,” he said. 

It’s these districts that have the greatest political diversity, where the candidate elected to office, whether Republican or Democrat, may be best described as “moderate” and “pragmatic.”

State House Rep. Erin Paré, a two-term incumbent and rising star of the Republican Party, is one of those candidates. Paré, who dropped out of a race for Congress, is currently the only Republican member of the state legislature in Wake County, and held onto her seat with 51.5 percent of the vote.

The Holly Springs resident, who co-owns a sporting goods store, was the primary sponsor of several bills that became law in her first term to modernize remote business access, change environmental laws, and defer fees for ABC permit renewal. 

Cotham’s race against Democratic newcomer Nicole Sidman was perhaps the most closely watched statewide. After Cotham changed parties, Republicans redrew her district to make it more favorable to the Mint Hill incumbent, including voters in South Charlotte and Matthews. Cotham won with 50.3 percent to Sidman’s 49.7 percent. 

On Election Day, she got a supportive boost from House Speaker Tim Moore, a fellow Republican who greeted voters for 30 minutes alongside her at William Davie Park, a polling place in south Charlotte. The two even posed for pictures holding each others’ campaign signs.

The park is located in both her House District 105 and in the congressional district—No. 14— that he will represent. Moore was instrumental in getting Cotham to join the GOP after being elected in 2022 as a Democrat.

Cotham said she’s run into some Democrats who’ve called her “traitor” and other names for switching parties last year.

She acknowledged that this year “it’s been a tough, competitive race.” Asked about Sidman, she said, “I have ignored my opponent and her team.” The issues she’s stressed are the same ones Republican candidates up and down the ballot have been talking about: The economy and crime—a growing concern in her district, she said.

Jennifer Harless, a 48-year-old nurse from Mint Hill who is registered unaffiliated, voted the straight Republican ticket–including for Cotham–on Tuesday at Northeast Middle School. 

She also defended Cotham’s decision to join the GOP. “People switch parties all the time. Trump did it,” she told The Assembly. “I don’t hold it against her. Everyone is entitled to decide what they believe and where they stand.”

Cotham will return to a House that faces significant changes. Moore, the five-time speaker from  Kings Mountain, won his congressional race and is expected to be replaced as speaker by Rep. Destin Hall, a Republican lawyer from Lenoir. Rep. Jason Saine of Lincolnton, the House’s top budget writer who led efforts to legalize sports gambling, retired from the legislature in August. 

“If you don’t have a super majority in one of the houses, then you’ve got to figure out a strategy which involves engaging with Democrats,” said former Rep. Chuck McGrady, a Republican who endorsed Stein for governor. “That doesn’t necessarily mean you’re now negotiating with the minority leader.”

He said personal factors and relationships could be in play. “When you’re missing only one or two votes, in theory, that should be easier than when you’re missing four votes,” he said. “But sometimes, four people up there together might be more willing to step out together than trying to find that one person who you know will ignore their ties to their own party.”

House Democratic leader Rep. Robert Reives said he is less concerned about members of his delegation breaking with the caucus on key Democratic priorities, but acknowledged that the Republican majority still holds control of the legislature’s purse strings. 

“Republicans have been known to hold people and projects and money hostage for districts, to force maybe some Democrats to vote with them or do something different,” Reives said. “I don’t know what they’re willing to do to get people to cross.” 

On The Agenda

When they return in mid-November, Republicans will have just over a month to pass bills with their supermajority. On everyone’s radar is scheduling a day to override Cooper’s veto of a bill that funds Opportunity Scholarships and requires counties to cooperate with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. 

“For the six-week period between the end of the election and the start of the new gubernatorial term, there’s a whole bunch of legislation that can be put forward,” McGrady said. 

Republicans could tighten exemptions to voter identification or further clip the governor’s wings. 

The legislature taking power from the executive branch is a long-standing dynamic that dates back to when Democrats had control, but some question how much power remains there.

“I don’t know how much more power there is to strip, right? At some point you’re just naked,” said Cooper, the political scientist.

Republicans will also decide whether to seek to further restrict access to abortion and reproductive healthcare in the two-year session that starts in January.

“It would be a huge mistake for the Republicans to try to reopen an abortion debate,” McGrady said. “There are members in the Republican caucus that feel like they’ve gone as far as they want to go on that issue.”

While further restricting the window to get an abortion might face serious headwinds in the next session, lawmakers could increase funding for crisis pregnancy centers, or change laws that limit access to reproductive healthcare, like limiting where an abortion can be performed or the legality of in vitro fertilization. 

Last year, the state legislature legalized sports gambling; some members of the state legislature sought to legalize casinos outside of tribal land as well as video lottery terminals in 2024, but socially conservative members pushed back.

Berger, one of the biggest supporters of casino legalization, did not return requests for comment. Two other proponents, Saine in the House and Jim Perry in the state Senate, have left. 

House Republicans expect a serious debate in 2025 about more legalized gambling. “I think you’re gonna see a very, very strategic session based off rebuilding Western North Carolina, and identifying the sources of revenue to do it,” House Majority Leader Rep. John Bell IV said.

Even before the devastation from Hurricane Helene, nonpartisan analysts in the legislature’s Fiscal Research Division forecasted a budget shortfall of $51 million in the 2026-27 fiscal year, growing to nearly $2 billion in 2027-28, The Assembly reported earlier this year.  

Expect discussions on video lottery terminals, regulating hemp and kratom, and legalizing medical marijuana, Bell said. The legislature will likely look at Opportunity Scholarships again, he said, noting, “I see some funding issues down the road.”   

“You take all that and there’s nothing more important that we’re going to work on doing next year than working on rebuilding western North Carolina,” Bell said. 

Tim Funk contributed reporting.

Ren Larson is a staff reporter at The Assembly. She previously worked for The Texas Tribune and ProPublica’s investigative team, and as a data reporter with The Arizona Republic. She holds a master’s of public policy and an M.A. in international and area studies from the University of California, Berkeley.