The Caucus: Roy Arrives

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We Have a Senate Race

On Monday, Democrat Roy Cooper made official what had been the source of months of fevered speculation: The 68-year-old Nash County native announced that he would seek to replace retiring Republican Thom Tillis in the U.S. Senate. The two-term gov has never lost a race in his 40-year career and was still popular when he left office. 

Cooper’s presumptive opponent, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, has never held elected office and isn’t well-known outside of political circles. He’s the candidate because President Donald Trump chose him—Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump declined—and Trump’s polling is currently … not great. 

So Coop’s the favorite, right? Maybe. Maybe not.  

North Carolina has a long, strange history of electing Democrats to state offices but Republicans in federal races. For example, Democrats have won eight of the last nine gubernatorial elections but lost seven of eight U.S. Senate contests. 

This dynamic has applied even when the same person ran for multiple jobs: Jim Hunt, who was incredibly popular as governor, lost his Senate bid to Jesse Helms in 1984. Terry Sanford, another popular Democratic governor, narrowly won his first Senate race in 1986 but lost reelection six years later. 

Which is all to say that there’s no guarantee that Cooper’s current popularity will translate into a Senate victory. Statewide Dems have tried to build a brand apart from the national party. That’s become more difficult in a polarized era, but Cooper did it well enough to earn thousands more votes than Trump in North Carolina in 2020. It becomes harder still in Senate races, which tend to be more nationalized. 

Indeed, the first Republican ads on “Radical Roy” replayed 2024’s greatest hits: immigration, crime, transgender health care, taxes. They also went after what might be the Cooper administration’s biggest weakness: the state’s troubled disaster response following Hurricane Matthew.  

Cooper, meanwhile, spent his announcement video talking about how “the middle class feels like a distant dream” while “the richest Americans have grabbed unimaginable wealth at your expense” and reminding viewers that he “grew up in Nash County working on the farm every summer.” 

These will likely be the contours of the 2026 campaign, amplified by about $100 million in advertising. Cooper will portray himself as a likable small-town guy who wants to go to Washington and fix things. Republicans will do everything they can to shred that reputation.

The coming onslaught of ads might matter less than Trump’s approval 15 months from now. Right now, Trump is polling at about 43 percent. (President Joe Biden was polling at about 40 percent in 2022, when Republican Ted Budd won a Senate seat from North Carolina.) Historically, the president’s party tends to have a rough midterm. And Whatley hasn’t developed a political identity aside from Trump. If Trump’s support cratered, it would be hard for Whatley—or any other Republican—to dig out of that hole.

— Jeffrey Billman

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Thanks for reading The Caucus, a politics newsletter anchored by Bryan Anderson. Reach us with tips or ideas at politics@theassemblync.com.

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Bills, Bills, Bills

While all eyes are on the U.S. Senate, there’s still lots to monitor in Raleigh this week. 

The House and Senate on Tuesday will seek to override the 14 bills that Gov. Josh Stein has vetoed. While the Senate’s overrides are essentially a foregone conclusion given Republicans have a supermajority in the chamber, the fate of many bills in the House is up in the air.

GOP leadership is planning for all 71 House members to be in attendance. If that happens, all 49 Democrats must be unified. If two Democrats are absent when a vote is called or one crosses party lines, Stein’s vetoes won’t stand.

Here are the bills that are least likely to become law, based on how members previously voted:

• Senate Bill 50: Would allow adults 18 or older to possess handguns without a permit. Republican Reps. Ted Davis and William Brisson opposed this, and no Democrats supported it.
• Senate Bill 153: Local governments that adopt sanctuary ordinances would lose their immunity from tort liability if people in the U.S. illegally commit a crime against a person or cause property damage within city or county limits. This passed along party lines.
• House Bill 171/Senate Bill 227/Senate Bill 558: Collectively, these anti-DEI measures would force state agencies and universities to curtail diversity, equity, and inclusion policies. All three bills passed along party lines.

Here are the bills most likely to become law:

• House Bill 96: This would crackdown on squatters. Stein vetoed it because of a last-minute amendment that prohibits local governments from regulating pet store animal adoptions. The bill unanimously cleared the Senate and had the support of 17 House Democrats, including caucus leader Robert Reives.
• Senate Bill 266: Would eliminate a state goal to achieve by 2030 a 70% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from electric public utilities from 2005 levels. Eleven House Democrats supported this.
• Senate Bill 254: Would give charter schools more flexibility to relocate without state approval. Eight House Democrats supported it.
• House Bill 318: Would require law enforcement to determine the legal status of a person charged with certain crimes. People without legal status could be held in custody longer, and jail administrators would need to notify ICE before releasing someone who was held on a detainer. Rep. Carla Cunningham of Mecklenburg County was the lone Democrat to support the bill and told The Assembly that she’d vote to override a veto.

Here are the bills that are wild cards:

• House Bill 402: Would require executive agencies (led by Stein appointees) to receive approval from the legislature before enacting costly regulatory policies. Cunningham and Democratic Reps. Cecil Brockman of Guilford County and Shelly Willingham of Edgecombe County supported it. 
• Senate Bill 416: Would bar public agencies from releasing information about members, volunteers, or donors to 501(c) nonprofit organizations. Cunningham and Willingham supported the measure, as did Democratic Rep. Charles Smith of Cumberland County.
• House Bill 805: Would allow lawsuits against medical providers over gender transitions and require schools to let parents prevent their children from checking out specific books from the library. Rep. Dante Pittman of Wilson County was the lone Democrat to back the bill. 
• House Bill 549: Clarifies that the state auditor can investigate any entity that receives state funds. Willingham was the lone supportive Democrat.
• House Bill 193: Would allow approved private school teachers or volunteers to act as armed security guards on campus. Willingham backed it.

— Bryan Anderson

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Hop on the Omnibus

Remember the elections omnibus bill that would allow for 25 political appointees to the State Board of Elections, prevent elections officials from encouraging people to vote, and allow foreign nationals to spend money to influence ballot measures? That’s scheduled for a hearing Wednesday. It’s unlikely the original bill will remain intact, but it remains to be seen which provisions will survive. 

Also, last week, the NCSBE moved forward with implementing a court order that would dilute the voting power of people who have never lived in North Carolina. Hundreds to thousands of voters who have been able to vote in state races will now be limited to federal-only ballots.

The Assembly and Anderson Alerts identified people with a history of North Carolina residency and in-person voting who were wrongly labeled as “never residents.” I’ve requested from the NCSBE a list of voters affected by the change and will see if any of the people we identified are on it.

— Bryan Anderson

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Morrow’s Next Moves

Michele Morrow set her sights on the national stage after her loss to Democrat Mo Green last fall. She founded an organization called the National Alliance for Education Reform and has reportedly considered running for U.S. Senate.

Morrow also has been trying to get a job in the Trump administration, according to testimony by her husband, Stuart Morrow, in an April hearing about custody of the couple’s 12-year-old son. She even scored a meeting with the chief of staff to Education Secretary Linda McMahon in February, he said.

Morrow is pursuing her next move at a difficult time in her personal life. She told Stuart on January 24 that she’d had a lawyer draw up a separation agreement, he said in court. The proceedings shed light on Morrow’s political plans.

— Carli Brosseau

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Around the State

McNeair Case: Charles McNeair has been behind bars for more than 45 years for a crime he says he didn’t commit. He has an unlikely new ally: the current chief of the police department that put McNeair in prison in 1980. Read the full story.

The Charlotte Way: Vi Lyles is running for a fifth term as Charlotte mayor. Her understated style fits the Queen City’s reputation for quiet, behind-the-scenes politics—also known as “The Charlotte Way.” But some are looking to open up the tightly controlled local government. Read the full story. 

Lot’s Full: Wrightsville Beach, a popular surfing spot near Wilmington, has been roiled by conflict over parking costs. While the town says it needs the funds for lifeguards and sanitation, some locals say the beach is a right, not a privilege. Read the full story.

— Grace McFadden

Let us know what’s on your radar at politics@theassemblync.com.

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