The Caucus: The Senate Race Heats Up

The big news this week is the announcement of candidates looking to succeed Sen. Thom Tillis. We’ve got that and more.

🧑‍⚖️ Roll Call

Movement in the race for Thom Tillis’s senate seat
Bryan’s take on NC’s state parks
Dems push fundraising efforts for the Supreme Court race
What’s the future of FEMA?

Senate Race Getting Warmer

Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is expected to announce his run for Senate on Monday. Axios first reported on Cooper’s plan, while Politico shared the anticipated launch date. Cooper’s right-hand man Morgan Jackson declined to confirm, but did tell The Assembly that Cooper will be “making his intentions known in the coming days.”

On the Republican side, Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley will be jumping in the Senate race with President Donald Trump’s support, according to multiple sources and a published report in Politico. Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, announced on Thursday that she won’t be running.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks the 2026 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina as one of three tossups. The contest is expected to be among the most contentious and expensive in the country.

Jeffrey Billman interviewed Senate Republican leader Phil Berger shortly after the news broke. Asked what his advice would be for Republicans looking to beat Cooper, he harkened back to the Jim Hunt–Jesse Helms race in 1984.

“Jim Hunt was unbeatable–never lost an election. He was the most popular governor ever,” said Berger. “But being a United States senator is completely different from being a governor. The thing I remember about that more than almost anything else is Sen. Helms would end all of his radio commercials and television with just a simple, ‘Where do you stand, Jim?’ And so it was a matter of tying Jim Hunt not to Jim Hunt the governor, but to Jim Hunt the national Democrat.”

Thanks for reading The Caucus, a politics newsletter anchored by Bryan Anderson. Reach us with tips or ideas at politics@theassemblync.com.

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Hot or Not: State Parks Edition

Let’s be honest: We are in the sticky, miserable part of North Carolina summer. While the outdoors may not sound terribly appealing as we crack triple-digit-temperatures in Raleigh this weekend, there is refuge: our state parks, which offer shaded hiking trails, picnic spots, and swimming.

I thought I’d put my reporter skills to good use by requesting data from the Department of Natural and Cultural Resources about where others traveled last year and comparing that list to my personal favorite spots.

Hot:

This DNCR’s list skews heavily toward more populous areas and disfavors areas impacted by Hurricane Helene. Here’s how many people visited the 10 most-popular parks in 2024:

Jordan Lake State Recreation Area (Apex) — 2,245,182
Jockey’s Ridge State Park (Nags Head) — 1,287,360
Falls Lake State Recreation Area (Wake Forest) — 1,245,658
Fort Fisher State Recreation Area (Kure Beach) — 1,227,390
Kerr Lake State Recreation Area (Henderson) — 1,171,008
Fort Macon State Park (Atlantic Beach) — 1,042,297
Hanging Rock State Park (Danbury) — 901,577
Carolina Beach State Park (Carolina Beach) — 809,597
Eno River State Park (Durham)* — 786,767
Lake Norman State Park (Troutman) — 776,802
William B. Umstead State Park (Raleigh) — 718,567

* Temporarily closed due to high water

Not:

And here are the least-visited state parks:

Rendezvous Mountain (Purlear) — 12,785
Singletary Lake State Park (Kelly) — 25,576
Elk Knob State Park (Todd) — 34,876
Pettigrew State Park (Creswell) — 54,769
Dismal Swamp State Park (South Mills) — 65,798
Haw River State Park (Browns Summit) — 86,429
Grandfather Mountain State Park (Banner Elk) — 96,861
Mount Jefferson State Natural Area (West Jefferson) — 102,245
Medoc Mountain State Park (Hollister) — 121,656
Lumber River State Park (Orrum) — 131,060

Bryan’s Take:

I love this state, and day trips, with all my heart. I have visited every single historic site and all but three of our 42 state parks. (I’m missing Elk Knob, New River, and Mount Jefferson.)

I’d like to think I’ve developed a good sense of what’s overrated and what’s a hidden gem. Here’s where I think you should visit:

Hanging Rock State Park (Danbury): It’s about an hour walk to the mountain summit and a 45-minute return, with a fantastic view. I recommended going early in the morning or very late in the afternoon for the coolest temperatures and smallest crowds. For picnics, head to the Indian Creek Trail, followed by a stop at Window Falls. Want some isolation? Try the Rock Garden or Upper Cascade Falls trails. This park has something for everyone, including biking trails and boat rentals. As you leave, check out Prissy Polly’s BBQ and the Piedmont Triad Farmers Market.
Jockey’s Ridge State Park (Nags Head): This is an absolute must stop on the Outer Banks. The sand dunes are pristine, regardless of how crowded they may get. My best tip: Walk along the Tracks in the Sand Trail to enjoy the view of the Roanoke Sound. Afterward, make your way to the Wright Brothers National Memorial and hit up the Kill Devil Grill for some crab cakes and key lime pie.
Gorges State Park (Sapphire): I can’t stand crowds, and I had this park near the NC-GA-SC-TN borders nearly all to myself in the fall. (You may not be so lucky this time of year.) While I wasn’t able to spot a bear, I did enjoy the view of Rainbow Falls. And if you have the budget, check out The Gorge Zipline in Brevard.
Stone Mountain State Park (Roaring Gap): I made this 2.5-hour trek while sharing a single bottle of water. Learn from my mistake! I thought I’d just walk to the historic Hutchinson Homestead and back to my car. But the view of the mountain was too good to pass up and I foolishly embarked on what may have been the single most strenuous hike I’ve ever done. It was well worth it. The journey took us through a waterfall and was one I’ll never forget. With proper hydration, I’d do it again in a heartbeat.
Hammocks Beach State Park (Swansboro): There isn’t much walking here. The park has paddle trails and a ferry that effectively takes you to your own private island. Go on a weekday if you can and have a day at the beach without all the crowds. But don’t tell anyone about this; I’m sharing it with you on deep background.
Fort Macon State Park (Atlantic Beach): My coastal bias is showing on this one. For the perfect mix of education and relaxation, this is the place to go. It’s centered on a restored pre-Civil War fort and often has cannon and musket demonstrations. I highly recommend a guided tour followed by a walk along the Elliott Coues Nature Trail, which passes through forest and sand dunes and connects to a swimming beach.
Chimney Rock State Park: I haven’t been since Hurricane Helene devastated the area, but as of July 28, it will again be open seven days a week. I don’t usually recommend parks that charge admission or require reservations, but this is a much-deserved exception. The views of the Broad River and surrounding area are spectacular and the community needs the business.
Pilot Mountain State Park (Pinnacle): In 2021, the Grindstone Fire burned more than 1,000 acres. I saw the park before, and visited again weeks after the fire when you could still smell smoke and see many fallen trees. But the park has been largely restored to its former glory. Guests who arrive early can drive directly to the summit; later arrivals will need to take a park shuttle. Pro tip: Check out the nearby Horne Creek Farm during apple-picking season.
Weymouth Woods Sandhills Nature Preserve (Southern Pines): This may be one of the most underrated parks in the state, though the word is slowly getting out. Walk behind the visitor center to the Pine Barrens Trail, close your eyes, and listen to the birds. The Pine Island Trail offers a wooded, calming loop around James Creek.
Kerr Lake State Recreation Area (Henderson): I felt compelled to choose at least one park near Raleigh for my local readers. While Kerr can get crowded, it’s not nearly as bad as Falls Lake or Jordan Lake. Henderson offers the best spot to swim; the crowds at the other two beaches just aren’t worth it. There’s also the nearby Raleigh Road Outdoor Theatre (which, despite its name, is actually in Henderson).

— Bryan Anderson

Supreme Court Fundraising

The N.C. Democratic Party has jumped on the opportunity to begin fundraising for the 2026 state Supreme Court race while still celebrating the long-awaited resolution of the 2024 contest.

Since losing two seats in 2022 and giving Republicans a 5-2 majority, Democrats have developed a plan to flip the court by 2028. A crucial next step is maintaining the seat that Democrat Anita Earls currently holds. Republican Sarah Stevens, a lawyer and current state House member from Mount Airy, has already announced she is running.

Democrats’ strategy also includes the creation of a new caucus “dedicated exclusively” to electing judges, and a coordinated fundraising campaign for judicial candidates that will serve as a platform for talking about why courts matter.

Earls, who officially kicked off her reelection campaign on May 30, has already been active on the campaign trail, attending political rallies and events during the four-month summer break in Supreme Court hearings.

This Saturday, she’s scheduled to share the stage at the party’s annual Unity Dinner with former Gov. Roy Cooper, who’s kept political news hounds on pins and needles over whether he’ll run for U.S. Senate, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a potential 2028 presidential candidate.

Even before Thom Tillis announced he would not seek reelection in 2026, North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race was expected to draw intense national attention. The state Supreme Court race also is expected to generate significant interest as the U.S. Supreme Court punts some of the country’s more divisive political issues–gerrymandering, abortion access, and voting rights–back to the states.

Democrats are building their 2026 strategy on one that Republicans successfully employed in 2022, when they backed a slate of candidates and took two state Supreme Court races and four state Court of Appeals races.

The Court of Appeals currently has three Democrats and 12 Republicans; all three held by Democrats are up for election next year. Democrats are already organizing rallies and fundraisers for them. Democrats John Arrowood and Toby Hampson have announced plans to seek reelection, while Allegra Collins has said she will not run.

Christine Walczyk, a Wake County District Court judge for 18 years, quickly threw her hat into the ring. James Whalen, a lawyer who represented Riggs in some of the post-election proceedings, announced his candidacy this month as well, setting the stage for a contested primary.

Republicans are also readying their slate candidates for the Court of Appeals races: Superior Court judges Craig Collins in Gaston County, Matt Smith in Union County, and George Bell in Mecklenburg County have all declared their candidacy.

The official filing period does not open until December 1.

— Anne Blythe

The Future of FEMA

President Donald Trump’s latest shift on FEMA came after he visited the Texas Hill Country, where floods killed at least 134 people. White House officials said during Trump’s visit that completely abolishing the agency was no longer the plan.

Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards, who serves on the administration’s FEMA task force, told our partners at NOTUS that he would support “a scaled-down, more nimble agency in Washington, D.C., that would provide support to the states to handle their own disaster recovery.”

But Democratic state Rep. Eric Ager said that the administration has put the state in a tough situation due to the lack of clear guidance: “Folks need to know what the reality is from the federal side, and that’s just what we’re not getting.”

— Torrence Banks