🧑⚖️ Roll Call
- Phil Berger trails Sam Page by double digits in new poll
- A sleepy week at the legislature and a DMV dispatch
- Stein talks new cannabis council
Poll Shows Berger Down 18 in GOP Primary
Senate leader Phil Berger, long considered North Carolina’s most powerful politician, faces daunting headwinds going into next year’s Republican primary—at least according to a recent poll obtained by The Assembly and Axios Raleigh.
The survey of 440 likely Republican voters, conducted on April 29 and 30, found Berger trailing his opponent, Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, by 18 percentage points. The poll has a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
The primary for state Senate District 26, which covers Rockingham County and part of Guilford County, isn’t until March. Polling this far out isn’t always predictive, and Berger will have a multimillion-dollar warchest with which to fight back. Still, it’s a sign that Page, a seven-term sheriff who has tethered himself to President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown, poses a serious political threat.
A loss for Berger would represent a sea change in the legislature.
Berger has represented Rockingham County in the state Senate since 2001. His fellow Republicans elevated him to minority leader in 2004, and he became the Senate’s president pro tempore in 2011 after the GOP captured the General Assembly. From that perch, Berger engineered the legislature’s rightward shift on taxes and social policies.
The Senate leader hasn’t faced a significant primary challenge since 2002, and general elections have mostly been foregone conclusions in his conservative district. But in 2023, Berger tried to muscle through a controversial proposal that would have allowed three non-tribal casinos, including one in Rockingham County.
Berger backed down amid a conservative backlash, but not before the move inflicted political damage. In late 2023, an anonymous poll had Page 30 points ahead of Berger in a Republican primary. (Page didn’t challenge Berger, running instead for lieutenant governor; he placed fifth in the primary. In November 2024, Berger won only 54 percent of the vote, his worst general election showing since taking office.)
At the time the anonymous poll surfaced, Phil Berger Jr., a state Supreme Court justice and the Senate leader’s son, told Axios that Patrick Sebastian, a partner at the polling firm Opinion Diagnostics, was involved in the effort to oust Berger. Sebastian, the nephew of former Gov. Pat McCrory, declined to confirm his involvement then.
This year, Sebastian put his name on the May 5 polling memo that showed Page up 18 points. According to the memo, which has circulated among donors and political operatives in recent weeks, Page’s lead expanded to 43 points after respondents were “exposed to information about Senator Berger’s policy positions” on casinos, public records, and work eligibility for immigrants.
The poll also said that 40 percent of Berger voters would either back Page or become undecided if President Trump endorsed the sheriff. (There’s “not a [expletive] chance” that will happen, a source close to the Trump administration said.)
Reached by phone on Thursday afternoon, Sebastian confirmed the poll’s authenticity. “The data reflects what conservatives already know: Phil Berger refused to back Donald Trump, pushed for an unwanted casino, weakened immigration enforcement, and passed a law letting politicians like himself delete their official public records,” he said. “That’s why he’s losing by double digits to a pro-Trump, tough-on-crime sheriff.”
It’s unclear who funded the poll.
For its part, Berger’s team dismissed the survey. “Patrick Sebastian’s new poll is about as credible as his poll two years ago showing Berger down 30 points,” spokesperson Dylan Watts said in a statement. “While they chase paychecks, Phil Berger remains focused solely on making life better for the hardworking folks back home.”
— Lucille Sherman and Jeffrey Billman
Thanks for reading The Caucus, a politics newsletter anchored by Bryan Anderson. Reach us with tips or ideas at politics@theassemblync.com.
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Immigration and Investments
It was a fairly slow week at the General Assembly, with only a handful of bills advancing. Here are three you should know about:
- Senate Bill 153: The seven-page bill seeks to crack down on unlawful entry into the U.S. and punish cities that adopt sanctuary policies. Among the most notable provisions: Allowing victims of crimes committed by migrants in the U.S. illegally to sue cities and counties that have adopted sanctuary ordinances. The measure passed the Senate in March and cleared the House along party lines this week. But because the House tweaked the bill, it must return to the Senate before moving to Gov. Josh Stein. This could end up being the first legislative showdown between Stein and the General Assembly. If he vetoed it, House Republicans could override him if one Democrat crossed party lines or two Democrats were absent. The GOP has a supermajority in the Senate.
- House Bill 506: This bill gives State Treasurer Brad Briner more flexibility in overseeing the state’s investments. It cleared both chambers unanimously and now moves to Stein for final approval. The bill reorganizes Briner’s office by creating a state Investment Authority, which Briner hopes will enable the state’s pension fund to see greater returns.
- Senate Bill 257: In case it wasn’t already clear how much the Senate disliked the House budget bill, Republicans in the upper chamber unanimously (and predictably) rejected the House’s two-year spending plan. But interestingly enough, nine Senate Democrats, including caucus leader Sydney Batch, backed the House version.
One bill that didn’t move this week:
- House Bill 127: A committee canceled a planned hearing on a bill that would effectively prohibit voter registration drives. The proposal would make it a misdemeanor for ballot drives to use real registration forms. Instead, political party activists and other third parties would only be allowed to hand out sample forms. North Carolinians could still register at the DMV or by mail.
Get REAL
Speaking of the DMV, last week, Stein decided to let reporters enjoy their Friday morning by making a trip to the state’s most beloved institution.
During a news conference, Stein and others vowed to improve the agency by extending hours of operation, increasing the number of field offices, and hiring more driver’s license examiners.
But perhaps the most newsworthy comment (which flew under the radar) came from Paul Tine, the agency’s new commissioner, who said about 52 percent of North Carolinians currently have a REAL ID, which he said was “actually not bad.”
Tine’s caveat: “Not everybody needs one. If you’re not going to fly and you’re not going to have to go into a federal building, you do not need one today. Your ID works great. Or if you have a passport, you can just show your passport to fly or go into the federal buildings.”
Pro tip from Stein and others: If you’re having trouble getting an appointment in the Triangle, apparently the Henderson DMV office is a good alternative. Stein said he last visited a DMV office a couple of years ago in Henderson, where he had an appointment lined up for his daughter to get her driver’s license.
“I know that this is a real challenge that parents deal with, that any driving adult deals with, and we have got to do better,” Stein said.
— Bryan Anderson
Stein Talks THC
Stein appeared on WRAL Tuesday to announce the creation of an advisory council on cannabis policy. Stein said he supports the legalization of adult recreational use of marijuana but wants to hear more from the council.
Hemp, which is legal in North Carolina, has lower levels of THC—the primary active ingredient is CBD—while marijuana is defined as having higher levels of THC. Stein said that the lines between marijuana and hemp had become blurred in the absence of state regulation and that many products with higher levels of THC are sold in vape shops, some of which he said sell to minors.
Stein’s announcement doesn’t address one issue that is now before the North Carolina Supreme Court—whether odor alone can justify law-enforcement officers searching someone’s vehicle, particularly when hemp and marijuana look and smell the same. Two cases that The Assembly wrote about are now pending before the court.
Upcoming Birthdays: Rep. Larry Strickland on Saturday, June 7; and Sen. Mujtaba Mohammed and Rep. Terry Brown on Sunday, June 8.
Let us know what’s on your radar at politics@theassemblync.com.