Perhaps fortunately for North Carolina Republicans, President Donald Trump’s first midterm in 2018 fell on a “blue moon,” meaning no U.S. Senate or Council of State races were on the ballot here. So while N.C. Democrats broke Republicans’ legislative supermajorities and swept the state Supreme Court election and all three Court of Appeals contests—the last statewide judicial elections they’ve won, not counting Justice Allison Riggs’ still-uncertified race this year—Sen. Thom Tillis and then-Sen. Richard Burr escaped a blue wave.
Next year, however, Tillis’ re-election chances will likely be tied to Trump’s popularity.
Last week, Meredith College released a poll of registered voters showing Trump with a 41 percent approval rating in North Carolina, less than 100 days into his presidency. For comparison, just before the 2018 election, Meredith had Trump at 39 percent approval.
Of course, it’s premature to start writing Tillis’ political obituary. He’s won two difficult Senate races already. There are also indications that Meredith might be underestimating Trump’s support. A survey of likely North Carolina voters from the liberal group Carolina Forward had Trump at 49 percent approval. And even if Trump is underwater now, a lot can change in a year.
Then again, that same Carolina Forward poll had Tillis with an anemic 30 percent approval rating, and narrowly trailing former Gov. Roy Cooper 46-44 in a hypothetical matchup. Cooper has yet to say whether he’s running, though just about every Democrat (aside, perhaps, from Wiley Nickel) wants him to.
Jeffrey Billman reports on politics and the law for The Assembly. Email him at jeffrey@theassemblync.com.