Elon Poll: Americans Concerned About Constitutional Crisis

Three months into President Donald Trump’s second administration, Americans across the political spectrum say they’re concerned about a constitutional crisis, according to the latest Elon University Poll.

The poll, released last week, showed two-thirds of respondents (67 percent) are very or somewhat concerned that the executive and judicial branches may reach a point where neither side will back down, creating a crisis over who has the final say on an issue. Among Democrats, 88 percent said they were concerned about a constitutional crisis. That number was 61% among Independents and 51 percent among Republicans.

Trump’s administration has been defying court orders for months, including one from the Supreme Court over a man wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador without due process.

Earlier this month, FBI agents arrested a sitting Wisconsin judge they allege obstructed Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents who attempted to deport a man who was appearing at an unrelated hearing before the judge.

A recent poll from the Pew Research Center showed that even a majority of Republicans do not believe Trump can defy a Supreme Court order and a majority and a strong majority believe he must also heed lower court rulings.

“I think this is suggestive that there are things even the Republican base are cautious about, and that’s not helpful to Trump,” said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll. “But I wouldn’t read too much into that. We know from so much research that the state of the economy really drives the outcomes of elections in many cases. So while people may care a lot about the judicial system and checks and balances, that’s not necessarily going to be the thing that tips them to vote one way or another.”

With the economy recently rocked by tariffs Trump announced and then postponed, the Elon poll found Trump’s overall approval falling, with 41 percent approving of his job performance and 47 percent disapproving. That’s down from a 45 percent approval-41 percent disapproval rating in the February Elon University Poll.

If the economy improves, Husser said, Trump and Republicans in general may be insulated from other concerns. If it doesn’t, it may signal trouble for the GOP in the midterms.

Earlier this month, Elon Law and UNCG held a joint symposium on current threats to the rule of law at home and abroad. Mounting concern about Trump’s conflicts with the judicial branch and the preservation of the rule of law could be costing Trump clout that will make it difficult for him to govern effectively, Husser said.

“In terms of Trump’s political capital, the poll suggests he may be spending political capital among his base that may not be the best strategic choice,” Husser said. “What we found is that 50 percent of people think he’s attempting to intimidate lawyers. Only 34 percent believe he’s trying to prevent abuse of the legal system by lawyers.”In the Elon poll, only 25 percent of Republicans agreed with the idea—advanced by Trump and his administration—that judges who make rulings that block executive orders should be impeached.

“I think if Trump had the level of mastery of the Republican party it often seems like he has, that would be higher,” Husser said. “He has definitely pulled together a unique, broad-scale coalition. But he doesn’t control how they think when it comes to what they think about fundamental parts of American governance.

The most recent Elon poll found 47 percent of respondents believe Trump’s executive orders have mostly gone too far, while just 36 percent believe they have mostly been correct. While there was a partisan split  on the question, more than 25 percent of Republicans polled sided with Democrats in saying they’ve gone too far.

Married with concerns over the economic effect of proposed tariffs and the resulting market uncertainty, the decline in Trump’s approval ratings could spook GOP congress members looking ahead to the midterms.

The latest poll showed a strong majority of Republicans—71 percent—willing to back Trump on economic policy even if they believe it will cost them more in goods and services. But that support drops sharply with non-GOP respondents.

The poll found 43 percent believe prices will be much higher due to new tariffs introduced under Trump. Another 37 percent expect somewhat higher prices. Altogether, 80 percent of those polled anticipate increased costs due to Trump policies.

Historically, Husser said, even presidents much more popular than Trump have come to regret taking steps so extreme they eventually alienate even the base and party that initially supported them.

“They could lose key friends in Congress and people who may be willing to tolerate pain to a certain extent in order to get along by going along at a certain point,” Husser said. “There’s a threshold there. Franklin Roosevelt’s biggest policy defeat in his presidency was when his own party turned against him, when he tried to pack the Supreme Court.”

How far Republicans are willing to back Trump despite the concerns found in the poll remains to be seen, Husser said.

Joe Killian is The Assembly’s Greensboro editor. He joined us from NC Newsline, where he was senior investigative reporter.