Trump and Harris Fight It Out Street by Street

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On an unseasonably warm October afternoon, Stephanie Moler and her husband, Ed, were walking a suburban neighborhood in east Kannapolis. Stopping in a cul-de-sac, Stephanie looked at her phone. Navigating a voter contact app called MiniVAN, she guided her husband to another door. 

“Who am I looking for?” he asked.

“Juana,” she replied. “Thirty-seven-year-old female. Unaffiliated.”

Ed, 55 years old and wearing a navy Harris-Walz t-shirt, knocked. Juana answered. “I assume you know why I’m here,” he said. “Would you say you’re a strong Harris supporter?”

She was. And so are they.

Though loyal Democrats, the Kannapolis couple hadn’t been active until they were energized by Kamala Harris’s late entry into the race. Since then they’ve called voters and knocked on doors. “We finally got to the point in our lives where just sitting still and being quiet wasn’t getting us anywhere,” said Stephanie, 53.

The Molers are foot soldiers in the battle for North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes. They’re among thousands of volunteers and paid canvassers representing campaigns, parties, and outside groups taking the fight to the streets in a state Donald Trump won four years ago by 1.3 percentage points, his narrowest margin of victory. 

Now it’s one of seven states analysts expect to decide the election. Polls show the race in North Carolina essentially tied; the Cook Political Report rates it a tossup. In a sign of North Carolina’s importance, Harris, Trump, and their running mates all have visited the state at least once since October 13.

To reach North Carolina’s 7.7 million voters, campaigns are spending millions on airwaves and algorithms. They’re filling TV and computer screens with partisan messages. But it’s their ground games with text messages, phone calls, and personal visits that could be most effective in pushing voters to the polls. 

“I consider it to be probably just as—if not slightly more important—than the air-war advertising,” said Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer.

So far, organizers’ efforts appear to be working. Early voting started on October 17, and through Oct. 25, nearly 2.5 million people had voted. 

North Carolina Republicans have a track record of getting their voters out. They’re confident of this year’s outreach effort despite criticism from some in their own party that their effort is lagging. Party leaders say that effort, dubbed Trump Force 47, goes beyond traditional door knocking in an effort to connect more personally with people most likely to vote for the former president.

“Trump Force 47 continues to reach out to those low- and mid-propensity voters,” said Jason Simmons, the state GOP chairman. “The targets have become much more refined.”

But both campaigns face a mountain-size wild card. Voter turnout could be depressed in Western North Carolina after Hurricane Helene disrupted life and livelihoods, though nobody can predict how much. The 25-county designated disaster area accounts for 17 percent of North Carolina voters, according to Bitzer. In the 2020 presidential election, 61 percent in that area voted Republican.

“There’s no way to sugarcoat that,” said one GOP strategist who did not want to be named so he could speak freely. “It’s a problem for Republicans, a huge problem. And it could be the difference in a tight race.” 

Democrats Playing Catch-Up

Soon after the 2020 election, Brad Crone, a Democrat-turned-independent political consultant, offered a post-mortem to a group of business leaders in Raleigh.

“The Republican turnout operation [was] so more disciplined, so more defined, than anything the Democrats have been able to muster in the [past] 10 years,” he said, according to Tribune Papers. 

In the pandemic year of 2020, Democrats chose to limit the COVID exposure of their volunteers and voters by dramatically downsizing their ground game. The usual phone banks stood empty. Canvassers stayed home. In Mecklenburg County, for example, Democrats knocked on just 292 doors; this year, they’ve visited more than 228,000.

Their North Carolina ground game is in full swing. The Harris campaign and Democratic coordinated campaign tout 29 field offices in 26 counties with a staff of more than 340. They say more than 32,000 volunteers signed up after Harris became the candidate. Like the Molers, most are new to the campaign.

“We have not seen such a coordinated, integrated campaign since 2008,” Crone told The Assembly. “I get a sense of energy, excitement and enthusiasm for the Democrats unlike anything we’ve seen since.”

But Democrats have some catching up to do if they want to make Harris the first Democrat to carry the state since Barack Obama in 2008.

“We have not seen such a coordinated, integrated campaign since 2008. I get a sense of energy, excitement and enthusiasm for the Democrats unlike anything we’ve seen since.”

Brad Crone, political consultant

In 2020, Bitzer says, 75 percent of registered Democrats turned out to vote, matching the statewide average. Republicans saw 81 percent of their voters cast ballots. 

In Mecklenburg County, Democratic turnout was 72 percent, below the state average and below Wake County’s 80 percent. Turnout for Black Democrats in Mecklenburg was 69 percent. Getting more Democrats to vote could have made a difference in at least one contest: Democrat Cheri Beasley lost her bid for Supreme Court chief justice by 401 votes.

Hillary Clinton also had more than two dozen offices in North Carolina when she ran in 2016. She went on to lose the state by 173,000 votes. Democrats say her campaign didn’t open major offices here until August. By contrast, Democrats began in January this year. They say they have stronger organizations on college campuses and in rural areas.

“We’ve built a campaign ready to win a close race with a powerful coalition—from the suburbs to the cities to our rural communities,” said Dory MacMillan, spokeswoman for Harris’s North Carolina campaign.

Like Republicans, Democrats have support from outside groups. Emily Thompson, deputy director of Planned Parenthood Votes North Carolina, said her group is investing $13 million in its largest-ever voter mobilization campaign. It’s part of a coalition that plans to knock on 3.8 million doors in the state by Election Day. “The stakes couldn’t be higher,” she said.

North Carolina Democrats are also getting a hand from up north.

Jeff Blum, 77, is a retired community organizer from New York. After looking for a place blue-state Democrats could make a difference, he started “All in for NC” four years ago. Now hundreds of volunteers in Massachusetts and other blue states call Democrats in Mecklenburg County, a place they feel they can help nationally and statewide by boosting Democratic turnout. They’ve even sent 47 canvassers to the county.

N.C. Democratic Chair Anderson Clayton says the ground game has “exceeded everybody’s expectations—even Republicans are scared.”

“It’s why Donald Trump’s been in the state so much,” she said. “It’s why JD Vance has been in the state so much. They know that North Carolina is in play more than ever.”

Republican U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis has acknowledged the Democrats’ effort.

“In North Carolina [Trump] is going to have a reasonably good ground game,” Tillis told Semafor last month. “But what we’re seeing in North Carolina that we haven’t seen for a time, though, is a really well-organized ground game by the Democrats.”

Outside Groups Involved

Republicans, meanwhile, have tweaked their ground operation. James Blair, Trump’s political director, told the Washington Post that the campaign doesn’t “value every voter contact equally.”

“We’re focused on applying maximum resources—meaning time, attention, money, manpower—onto the folks whose voting behavior we know we can impact by our efforts,” he said, “and less time and attention and resources and manpower on those whose voting behavior we really can’t impact … It’s a more targeted approach.”

GOP volunteers still knock on doors using a phone app called Campaign Sidekick. They focus on personal contacts with voters who they believe are the likeliest Trump supporters.

But Politico reported last month that Republicans had begun “to raise alarms” about Trump’s ground game.

Andy Yates is a Republican consultant in Huntersville. His wife is unaffiliated. Since July, he said she’s had three visits from Harris-aligned canvassers, and none from Republicans. “I’m concerned with what we’re doing on the ground in the suburban areas [compared to] what the Democrats are doing,” Yates said.

Other Republicans have criticized what they see as an over-reliance on outside groups such as Elon Musk’s America PAC and Turning Point Action. The Guardian reported Saturday that about a quarter of door knocks by Musk’s group appeared not to have happened. (A ruling this year by the Federal Election Commission made it easier for groups to coordinate with federal campaigns on voter outreach.) 

Groups working in North Carolina include American Majority Action and Susan B. Anthony Pro-life America. Each plans to knock on nearly 500,000 doors to complement the Trump campaign efforts.

Last week the Wall Street Journal reported that when GOP officials wanted to focus on turnout and “election integrity,” Trump told them to concentrate on the latter.

“You didn’t have in 2016 the level of engagement by outside groups,” said Doug Heye, a former national GOP spokesman. “You had it but not nearly at this level, on both sides. It’s exploded.”

N.C. GOP spokesman Matt Mercer said, “There’s only one ground game this year that’s already been tested—and that’s the Trump campaign in the primary.”

Jim Stirling, a research fellow with the conservative John Locke Foundation and a veteran of GOP campaigns and outside group efforts, says Republicans know how important North Carolina is.

“[It] is just too pivotal to Trump’s presidential bid to just hope that it will continue its trend of electing Republicans to federal office in statewide elections,” he said. “If Harris wins North Carolina, there’s very little path to victory for Trump.”

Bitzer, the political scientist, said Republicans have history on their side. “Republicans have been winning the ground game since 2010,” he said, “so they have the built-in dynamics in play. The question is whether there’s increased dynamics on the other side.”

Shifting Ground

Democrat Caleb Rudow is running for Congress in the 11th District, which includes virtually every county affected by Hurricane Helene. After the storm hit, he had a simple message for his 10-person campaign team. “Your job is to keep your families safe,” he told them. “We take one day at a time.” 

Like the rivers and mudslides that washed away homes and businesses, the ground has shifted beneath the feet of political campaigns in Western North Carolina. Campaigns have put aside outreach plans for more immediate concerns.

“Even if you live and breathe politics, having a roof over your head is much more important,” says Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University. “So voting moves down the priority list for many folks in a situation like this.”

The State Board of Elections has promised to make every effort to ensure that people can vote, even in the 13 hardest-hit counties. Election officials opened early voting sites on schedule this month in all 100 counties. Some counties have been more affected by the storm. Of Ashe County’s six election precincts, “one building moved off its foundation, and another was completely lost,” according to a report in Carolina Public Press.

“Republicans have been winning the ground game since 2010, so they have the built-in dynamics in play. The question is whether there’s increased dynamics on the other side.”

Michael Bitzer, Catawba College political scientist

“People are devastated out here,” Rudow told The Assembly. “But people are really resilient and they’re figuring things out. I believe that resilience is going to carry forward in the election.”

But turnout could take a hit. It’s hard to run a phone bank when cell service is gone. Hard to visit voters when roads are closed. Hard to go door-to-door when the doors may be gone. “All of this microtargeting assumes we know who lives where—and that may no longer be the case,” Cooper said.

Reduced turnout could hurt Republicans more than Democrats. While the larger cities are heavily Democratic, according to Bitzer, residents in Asheville, Hickory, and Lenoir make up only 10 percent of the voters in the 25-county region. Most of the area is Republican.

Michele Woodhouse, who chairs the 11th District GOP, isn’t worried. She says Republicans “are motivated more than ever to get out to vote.”

“They know that this is the election of a lifetime,” she said. “The people of Western North Carolina recognize that the Biden-Harris administration has completely ignored the devastation happening here.” She dismissed the $750 FEMA has offered residents as a token. That money can be used for essential goods such as food, water, and medication while FEMA determines the applicant’s eligibility for other funds.

Members of both parties have disputed characterizations like Woodhouse’s. Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards, who represents the 11th District, addressed the spread of disinformation in a news release responding to the “outrageous rumors that have been circulated online.” 

“We have seen a level of support that is unmatched by most any other disaster nationwide,” Edwards wrote. “But amidst all of the support, we have also seen an uptick in untrustworthy sources trying to spark chaos by sharing hoaxes, conspiracy theories, and hearsay about hurricane response efforts across our mountains.”

In a tweet, Heye said: “Western NC is intensely Republican. So the Trumpy disinformation campaign will disproportionately hurt Trump supporters. That’s malevolent.”

Gone to Carolina

In the final weeks of the campaign, ground games are in full swing. Even celebrities are getting in the act; singer James Taylor canvassed this month for a Democratic candidate in Cabarrus County. California Governor Gavin Newsom recently mobilized Democrats in Davidson and at UNC-Charlotte. 

Volunteers on both sides know the race will be tight.

“Like presidential elections over the past several cycles, North Carolina is close,” said the state GOP’s Mercer. “We feel confident that President Trump will continue to hold a steady lead and will win North Carolina a third time this year.”

As he walked that Kannapolis neighborhood recently, Ed Moler left voters with a simple reminder of what’s at stake in a state Trump last won by 74,483 votes out of 5.5 million cast.

“Twenty-eight new people in each precinct voting,” he said, “and we could flip the whole state.”