|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Less than five hours after President Joe Biden withdrew from the presidential race on July 21, most of North Carolina’s 132 voting delegates to next month’s Democratic National Convention gathered on a hastily arranged Zoom call.
Biden’s decision sparked a wave of uncertainty among the delegates, many of whom have no experience with conventions. Anderson Clayton, the state Democratic Party’s 26-year-old chair, worked to calm them down. “We wanted to make sure that we were meeting our delegates at the ground level, being like, “OK, now what?’” Clayton told The Assembly.
About a quarter of the delegation is under 35, and almost all had pledged to support Biden. “A lot of young people were like, ‘Am I released?’” Clayton said.
But Clayton, who worked for Vice President Kamala Harris’ first presidential campaign in 2019, had another goal in mind. “It would be really, really nice for us to come out of this call with an endorsement of the vice president—the first Southern state to be able to do this,” she recalled telling Matt Hughes, the leader of the state party’s delegation.
They were the second. Shortly before their Zoom call began, the Tennessee Democratic Party announced that it had endorsed Harris. North Carolina’s delegates quickly made their own endorsement. Everyone was on the same page, Clayton said, and there was little discussion before the unanimous vote.
Then the delegates went further, unanimously recommending that Harris make Gov. Roy Cooper her running mate.
Even before Biden dropped out, tongues were wagging about North Carolina’s term-limited, twice-elected governor. Cooper, 67, boasts a solid resumé to be Harris’ number two: A popular, folksy moderate from rural Nash County, he’d never lost an election in his nearly 40 years in state politics. And in 2020, he was the only Democratic governor to win a state that Donald Trump also won.
By the time Harris became the presumptive nominee on July 22, Cooper’s name was on Harris’ shortlist, alongside Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly.
North Carolina’s Democrats have been pushing for him ever since. Over the last week, they’ve flooded social media with pictures of themselves and Cooper, with the message, “I know who I would pick for VP.”
“People are excited about a governor who’s walloped Donald Trump twice on the ballot, and who’s gotten Medicaid expansion to over 500,000 people in North Carolina, even with Republicans in a state that had been trying to deny it for the last decade,” Clayton said. “And I think that we want a Southern governor who can speak to rural communities, whether they are in rural North Carolina, rural Idaho, or rural California. And I think he can do all of the above.
“I believe having Gov. Cooper on the ballot would help carry a state that Republicans need to win the White House.”
Even some conservatives joined in. Picking Cooper “will put NC right smack in the center of swing states and the most important state in the 2024 election,” attorney and former Republican operative Lawrence Shaheen Jr. posted on X.
Dallas Woodhouse, the former executive director of the North Carolina Republican Party who rarely spares a kind word for Democrats, added that Harris “could do worse than Roy Cooper.”
Within the next two weeks, Harris will make the most consequential decision of her nascent campaign, and she’ll have to make that decision faster than any candidate in a generation. Her VP’s job will be to reassure older, moderate white voters who were key to Biden’s 2020 coalition without alienating the young progressives who have rallied behind Harris.
It’s a delicate tightrope. The question facing Harris is whether Roy Cooper is the best person to walk it.
Do No Harm
The first rule of choosing modern vice presidential nominees is to do no harm, said Michael Bitzer, a professor of political science at Catawba College.
“Cause absolutely no controversy,” Bitzer said. “Do not try to upstage the top of the ticket.”
In 2008, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin became a national punchline, dragging down Sen. John McCain’s presidential bid. Trump’s pick this year, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, has already seen a rocky launch as past statements surfaced in which he criticized “childless cat ladies” and called for a federal abortion ban.
Cooper’s selection would be unlikely to meet a similar fate. His low-key style wouldn’t overshadow Harris. His long record of center-left politics—and his tendency to carefully choose his words—means Republican opposition researchers probably won’t unearth outrageous comments. Most importantly, the governor has largely avoided scandals.
“People are excited about a governor who’s walloped Donald Trump twice on the ballot, and who’s gotten Medicaid expansion to over 500,000 people in North Carolina, even with Republicans in a state that had been trying to deny it for the last decade.”
Anderson Clayton
That’s not to say he’s been free from criticism. When Cooper was attorney general, Republicans attacked him for refusing to defend HB 2—the so-called bathroom bill—and voter-ID legislation in court, accusing him of putting his political ambitions above his legal responsibilities.
More recently, legislative Republicans have investigated Cooper’s office for allegedly threatening the State Bureau of Investigation director if he didn’t resign, and the state’s disaster relief agency botched efforts to help victims of Hurricane Matthew. Conservatives also criticized Cooper for closing schools and businesses during the COVID pandemic.
But Cooper was easily reelected in 2020, and he remains the state’s best-known politician.
Cooper also dodges landmines facing other Democratic contenders. Liberals have criticized Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, for supporting a school voucher bill. Cooper, by contrast, has fought Republican attempts to expand vouchers in North Carolina. And Kelly, the Arizona senator, only recently signed on to a pro-labor bill under pressure from progressives. With North Carolina a “right to work” state, Cooper has avoided thorny labor issues.
Still, Cooper’s four decades of public service—including 14 years in the General Assembly and 16 years as attorney general—present opportunities for opposition researchers. Long-forgotten votes and litigation could turn into 30-second attack ads. Then again, North Carolina Republicans have tried for decades to knock Cooper off his pedestal, and they’ve yet to produce the goods.
“As far as I know, he brings no baggage,” said Susan Roberts, a professor of political science at Davidson College. “He’s been vetted by the voters, and by Republicans wanting to defeat him.”
Exciting White Men
As a rule, vice-presidential nominees rarely affect election outcomes in their home states. Between 1920 and 2008, vice presidential nominees added about 2.2 percentage points to their ticket in their home state, according to an analysis by the website FiveThirtyEight. The analysis indicates that Sen. John Kerry got a bump of 0.2 points in 2004 in North Carolina by tapping Sen. John Edwards as his running mate–not enough to win the state.
However, a recent Public Policy Polling survey suggested that Harris would net 2 points in North Carolina by adding Cooper. Biden lost North Carolina by just 1.3 points in 2020.
“When you’ve got such a calcified, rigid electorate, both within North Carolina and nationally, that 2 to 3 to maybe 4 percent of persuadables is really the determinative factor,” Bitzer said. “A point here or two points there can have major consequences.”
Shapiro and Kelly offer Harris similar benefits in Pennsylvania and Arizona, respectively—states Biden narrowly won in 2020. Strictly by this criterion, Shapiro is a better choice: Harris has plausible paths to 270 Electoral College votes without Arizona or North Carolina, but it would be difficult to get there without Pennsylvania. For that reason, the Trump team is reportedly most concerned about him.
Still, while the biggest strategic role a VP nominee plays is balancing the ticket, geography is only one factor, Bitzer said. Candidates are also chosen to unify the party or assuage voting blocs.
Ronald Reagan selected George H.W. Bush in 1980 to mollify the Republican establishment’s concerns about his hard-right conservatism. George W. Bush picked Dick Cheney in 2000 to add foreign policy heft to his ticket. Obama chose Biden in 2008 to offset his youth and lack of experience.
Cooper complements Harris in a few obvious ways. Like the other leading contenders, he’s a white man. (The shortlist “is the most exciting group of white men I have ever seen,” a Democratic strategist told Semafor.)
He’s also from the South, and grew up working on a tobacco farm; Harris was born in Oakland, California, the child of a biologist and an economist. He projects an Andy Griffith-esque persona that might appeal to older white voters. And he’s carved out a reputation as a moderate, even while supporting Democratic priorities like abortion rights and public schools. By contrast, Harris will spend the election defending herself against Republican charges that she’s a San Francisco liberal.
“I think that’s a central part of [Cooper’s] appeal as a vice presidential candidate is that he’s got something going that resonates with a broader section of voters,” said Asher Hildebrand, a former Democratic operative who now teaches politics and policy analysis at Duke University. “It certainly resonates in the states in this region, Georgia, Virginia, and other states like that that are in play. I think it could resonate in the Rust Belt states as well.”
Cooper can point to several significant achievements. He led the effort to repeal HB 2 soon after taking office, and last year, he convinced the reluctant General Assembly to expand Medicaid coverage to an additional half-million people. Throughout his tenure, the state has been ranked among the country’s best places to do business. (Though Republicans dispute how much credit Cooper deserves for that.)
Cooper “plays really well with the swing voters who are going to decide the election,” said U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickel, a Cary Democrat. “I think everyone can agree that Roy Cooper has been a Democrat focusing on what’s best for Democrats, independents, and Republicans. He certainly has a partisan role to play, but his focus has always been what’s best for everybody. And I think we need a lot more of that.”
State Sen. Jay Chaudhuri, a Raleigh Democrat who worked for Cooper in the Attorney General’s Office, points out that Cooper is a master of retail politics who has a long track record of winning tough elections.
“He has won six [statewide] elections,” Chaudhuri said. “You know, his dropping notes and letters to constituents and supporters and donors is just legendary. I mean, the guy’s been writing handwritten notes for the last 30 years. He is arguably the candidate with the deepest political roots of any of the other two or three candidates they’re looking at. Cooper has built the strongest political machine in our state since [former Gov.] Jim Hunt.”
One intangible plays in Cooper’s favor, as well: He and Harris are friends. When Harris was elected California’s attorney general in 2010, Cooper was president of the National Association of Attorneys General. The two got to know each other. They were both key players in consumer protection litigation following the Great Recession. Earlier this year, Harris praised Cooper as “courageous” and “fearless” and called him a “dear friend.” Her office also worked with Cooper on a program to erase medical debt in North Carolina.
“There are a lot of people that [Harris] can choose,” Cooper told WRAL, declining to discuss the selection process in detail. “She’s going to make the right choice. I just want her to choose the person that gets the best chance to win.”
Yeah, But
Nationally, some Democrats have fretted that getting Cooper on the campaign trail would allow his lieutenant governor, Republican Mark Robinson, to wreak havoc. Under North Carolina law, Robinson assumes the governor’s duties whenever Cooper leaves the state.
But these concerns are overblown. The General Assembly has only scheduled a handful of legislative sessions for the rest of this year, primarily to override existing vetoes. Cooper could fly back from campaigning to act on any new bills. And if Robinson issues executive orders, Cooper could simply rescind them.
In any event, the risk of such gamesmanship would almost certainly outweigh any policy rewards. “It would be a political disaster to play around with that stuff,” Woodhouse, the former NC GOP leader, posted on X. “The Robinson people are smarter than that.”
“She’s going to make the right choice. I just want her to choose the person that gets the best chance to win.”
Gov. Roy Cooper
The more legitimate strikes on Cooper come from a comparison with his rivals. For starters, he’s eight years older than Harris and the oldest of the leading veep contenders. Democrats just pushed out a presidential candidate whom voters thought was too old. If Harris wins this November, Cooper would likely be too old to run for president in 2032, wasting an opportunity for Democrats to develop their next nominee.
Perhaps more importantly, Cooper probably won’t excite the base.
Kelly is a former fighter pilot and astronaut who became a gun safety advocate after his wife, former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, was shot; he’s also been critical of the Biden administration’s border policies, which Democrats hope might shore up one of Harris’ weaknesses. The charismatic Shapiro rose to prominence battling the Trump administration in court as Pennsylvania’s attorney general and has sharply criticized Trump and Vance on the campaign trail.
Cooper, on the other hand, does not come across in television interviews as forcefully. It’s also unclear how his unassuming charm would translate on a national stage, or how he might approach a VP debate with the more pugilistic Vance.
“There’s a certain voter for whom that comparison is probably unflattering to Cooper,” Hildebrand said. “But I think we shouldn’t underestimate that there’s also a type of voter for whom that belligerent, populist chest-beating would contrast poorly to the soft-spoken, folksy competency of someone like Roy Cooper.”
Bitzer said that while Cooper might display an “Andy Griffith style,” he can also make the case that he’s fought back against “hard Republicanism.” He spent most of his two terms as governor playing defense; he’s vetoed 99 bills, including abortion restrictions and legislation that expanded gun rights.
“What he’s been able to do, in at least attempting to stand up to the legislature, is say, ‘I can go toe-to-toe with a Republican Party that has gone hard right,’” he said. “If [Harris] is looking for somebody that can take the fight, along with her, to the Republicans, I think he’s got enough experience.”
If VP isn’t in the cards, Cooper probably isn’t done with public service. There’s speculation that he could run for Senate in 2026, or, if Harris wins, take a position in her administration.
But right now, his next move isn’t clear. Unless, of course, Harris decides for him.
Jeffrey Billman reports on politics and the law for The Assembly. Email him at jeffrey@theassemblync.com.